New Working Paper & Policy Brief
AI occupational exposure scores are unstable — and the policies built on them are too
How (un)Stable Are LLM Occupational Exposure Scores?
Every major forecast about which jobs AI will eliminate comes from asking AI to rate itself. We replicated the dominant rubric with three frontier models on 18,797 tasks. The scores diverge 3.6-fold, agreement is as low as 57%, and employment estimates flip sign depending on which model is used. The companion policy brief proposes the Adaptive Precision Framework.
Resources
- Working Paper: Full page with embedded reader
- Policy Brief: The Adaptive Precision Framework
- Key Figure: Figure 3 — Exposure by occupation & model
Disability Employment & Wage Policy
Eliminating subminimum wages and advancing competitive integrated employment
Subminimum Wage Elimination & Virginia EPIC
First national quasi-experimental analysis of Section 14(c) elimination. No aggregate job loss, 12.4% decline in welfare dependence. Virginia EPIC transitions workers to competitive integrated employment.
Related Publications
- Yin, Seo & Vu (2026). Labour Economics | EPIC Brief
- National Policy Brief: Download PDF
- Virginia Policy Brief: Something EPIC in Virginia
Maine Pathways to Partnerships
Developing interagency collaboration models for youth with disabilities transitioning from education to employment. Features the ROI of vocational rehabilitation and interagency coordination.
Related Publications
- NEW: Yin & Guerrero (2026). Making Time Count in VR | Print PDF
- Yin & Guerrero (2025). Economic Imperative of VR | NCRTM
- Yin (2025). Stronger Together | NCRTM
- Yin, Siwach & Lin (2022). JPAM
NAEP Process Data & Digital Assessment Accessibility
Using large-scale NAEP log data to understand how students solve math problems and who benefits from extended time and other accommodations in digital assessments.
Related Publications (3 papers)
- Ogut, Yin et al. (2025). Universal by Design - EMIP
- Ogut et al. (2025). Running Out of Time - IEJEE
- Ogut et al. (2024). Process Mining - Computers in Schools
Is It Live or Is It Internet? Experimental Estimates of the Effects of Online Instruction on Student Learning
First randomized experimental comparison of live vs. internet instruction in higher education. Students in a large introductory microeconomics course were randomly assigned to live lectures or to watch the same lectures online, with all other factors held constant. Finds modest evidence that live instruction dominates internet-only — with stronger effects for Hispanic, male, and lower-achieving students.
Special Olympics Unified Champion Schools
Evaluating how whole-school inclusion programs affect academic and behavioral outcomes for all students, with 11 years of student-level data and rigorous econometric methods.
Related Publications
- Yin & Seo (2024). Global Evaluation of the Special Olympics UCS Program in Six Countries (Argentina, Egypt, India, Pakistan, Romania, Rwanda). Final Report
- Yin, Siwach & Orellana (2025). AERA Open
- Yin, Siwach & Belyakova (2020). AERJ
Disability Economics & Pay Equity
Quantifying the economic impact of disability employment disparities
Hidden Market
After-tax income of working-age adults with disabilities. A significant, underserved consumer market.
Uneven Playing Field
GDP impact if workers with disabilities were paid comparably. Gap widens with education level.
One Size Does Not Fit All
Labor force participation varies dramatically by disability type. Policy must be tailored.
Leading the Way, or Falling Behind?
Boston pay gap: ~$24,000 for workers with disabilities, nearly $10K above the national average.
View Research →Racial Disparities in VR
Identifying systemic inequities in access to and outcomes from vocational rehabilitation services.
View Research →